Despite the initially sluggish start of vaccinations in Germany and a new scare over the AstraZeneca vaccine, large parts of the German population appear to be on track to be vaccinated in the coming months, possibly well before the end of the summer. “It is realistic that all adults who want to get vaccinated will be able to get a shot by the end of July,” said Sebastian Dullien, research director at the Macroeconomic Policy Institute at the Hans Böckler Foundation. “Only two conditions have to be met for that to happen: We have to get the vaccine and it has to be administered.”
The economics professor used data from the German Health Ministry to do a comparison of the planned vaccine deliveries for Germany and the demand for vaccine. According to his tally, deliveries to Germany of more than 107 million doses should be completed by early July – and that even if the planned CureVac vaccine isn’t authorized by that time and not a single dose of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine is used. By the end of July, that figure should rise to over 140 million doses.
Overall, vaccine deliveries to Germany are now expected to accelerate dramatically. Previously, Germany had been receiving less than 2 million doses a week, but as early as last week, the German Health Ministry was expecting the delivery of 3.4 million doses. From this week, deliveries of 3 million doses a week are expected and by the end of April, that figure is expected to increase to 6 million doses a week, then again to 7.5 million doses a week beginning in mid-May.
According to Dullien’s calculations, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s vaccination target of offering every resident of Germany a shot by the end of the summer seems achievable. “According to the projection, a total of 215 million doses will have been delivered by Sept. 23, which would be enough for 118 million people,” the researcher says.
