Periods covered :
- Wave 2 (Beta): 29 Nov-26 Dec 2020
- Wave 3 (#Delta): 2 May-29 May 2021
- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 14 Nov-11 Dec 2021
How many reported Covid 19 cases (how many people tested positive) during the 1st month of each wave in Gauteng?
- Wave 2 (Beta): 41,046
- Wave 3 (#Delta): 33,423
- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 133,551
Which percentage of people who tested positive for Covid 19 got admitted to hospital in the different waves?
- Wave 2 (Beta): 18.9% (7,774/41,046)
- Wave 3 (#Delta): 13.7% (4,574/33,423)
- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4.9% (6,510/133,551)
Which percentage of Covid 19 hospital patients had severe disease (Acute respiratory distress, Oxygen supplementation, Ventilation, Intensive care unit admission, Death)
- Wave 2 (Beta): 60.1% (4,672/7,774)
- Wave 3 (#Delta): 66.9% (3,058/4,574)
- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 28.8% (1,276/4,438) [2,072/ 6,510 patients
Percentage of Covid 19 patients needing supplemental oxygen:
- Wave 2 (Beta): 39.4% (3,063/7,774)
- Wave 3 (#Delta): 48.8% (2,231/4,574)
- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 19.7% (875/4,438)
Median hospital stay:
- Wave 2 (Beta): 7 days
- Wave 3 (#Delta): 8 days
- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4 days
What does the data tell us?
Admitted patients in the 1st month of SA’s Omicron (4th) wave were 73% less likely to have severe disease than patients admitted during the 1st month of the Beta and Delta waves.
Omicron admissions don’t strain the health system to same extent as Delta admissions because Omicron leads to severe disease 73% less often than Delta (after adjustment).
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3996320
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