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2 January 2022 – #Omicron update for London, UK.
I have added a conservative projection for PCR+ cases by specimen date. The actual numbers (orange) is likely to increase as new data comes in.
In both scenarios, London has peaked already.
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Total Omicron hospital bed projections for London, UK remain unchanged.
Hospital beds are likely to peak between 32-47 beds/100k population compared to 23/100k for Gauteng, SA.
The Jan ’21 peak was 88/100k.
(London population used – 9 million).
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Ventilated bed projections for London have been revised downwards.
Ventilated beds are likely to peak between 0.4-1.7 beds/100k population compared to 0.8/100k for Gauteng, SA.
The Jan ’21 peak was 13/100k.
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While there is uncertainty around the peak level of ventilated beds (40-154 beds), the level is an order of magnitude lower compared to January 2021.
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