Interesting London analysis from research associate who successfully tracked and predicted data for Gauteng, South Africa

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2 January 2022 – #Omicron update for London, UK.

I have added a conservative projection for PCR+ cases by specimen date. The actual numbers (orange) is likely to increase as new data comes in.

In both scenarios, London has peaked already.

data:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=London

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Total Omicron hospital bed projections for London, UK remain unchanged.

Hospital beds are likely to peak between 32-47 beds/100k population compared to 23/100k for Gauteng, SA.

The Jan ’21 peak was 88/100k.

(London population used – 9 million).

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Ventilated bed projections for London have been revised downwards.

Ventilated beds are likely to peak between 0.4-1.7 beds/100k population compared to 0.8/100k for Gauteng, SA.

The Jan ’21 peak was 13/100k.

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While there is uncertainty around the peak level of ventilated beds (40-154 beds), the level is an order of magnitude lower compared to January 2021.

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Originally tweeted by pieterstreicher (@pieterstreicher) on January 2, 2022.


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