New models says COVID-19 deaths have peaked in Washington


New models, put together by scientists at the U.W., suggest that we could reach the total projected COVID-19 deaths as early as May 10 and the number of projected deaths would drop significantly in our state, but it’s contingent on extended social distancing in our state.

Researchers at UW’s School of Medicine says this huge shift in projected deaths, initially from more than 1,600 to 632 has happened for a number of reasons -including social distancing factors taking an effect in our state, plus what the researchers call a “massive infusion of new data’.

Dr. Chris Murray, Director for the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine said initial modeling was based mainly on data from Wuhan, China.

“As we obtain more data and more precise data, the forecasts we at IHME created have become more accurate,” Murray said. “And these projections are vital to health planners, policymakers, and anyone else associated with caring for those affected by and infected with the coronavirus.”