US – Infections down 60%, Hospitalisations down 30%

Here are the four largest states

Geographically, politically diverse with very different strategies and mitigation policies

Infections are down 50-80% across these states

And hospitalizations have turned the corner in each of these states

Deaths are starting to follow pic.twitter.com/MM6tKm6ffY

— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 6, 2022

Nationally, we should see deaths turning down in about a week

Because deaths lag cases by 3 weeks

I also expect trends in deaths to vary by states

Because in highly vaccinated states, cases have not resulted in deaths to same degree as in less vaccinated statesd states

— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 6, 2022

Means a relatively better spring, summer

Though don't count out summer surge in the south

What happens further down the road hard to predict

And so, let's worry less about predicting

And focus on preparation

I don't know if/when next variant comes

Let's get ready

Fin

— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 6, 2022